Oscars 2022: Who Got More Winners Right, AI or the Movie Experts?

From Will Smith's Best Actor win to "Encanto" for Best Animated Film, here's how they stacked up

Deborah Yao

March 28, 2022

4 Min Read
Image shows Will Smith attending the 2022 Vanity Fair Oscar Party hosted by Radhika Jones
Photo by Lionel Hahn/Getty Images

Every year for the last six years, Unanimous AI has been more accurate than movie critics at predicting Oscar winners. It uses swarm intelligence the power of interactive group decisions enhanced by AI – to transform regular people into expert decision-makers.

How did it do this year? Here’s the list of its predictions using Swarm AI.

Swarm AI Predictions for the 2022 Academy Awards

Oscars Category

Predicted Winner

Predicted Probability

Best Animated Feature Film

Encanto

90%

Best Visual Effects

Dune

89%

Best Cinematography

Dune

89%

Best International Film

Drive My Car

86%

Best Production Design

Dune

85%

Best Director

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

82%

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain (Eyes of Tammy Faye)

76%

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Power of the Dog

75%

Best Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul

75%

Best Costume Design

Cruella

69%

Supporting Actor

Troy Kotsure (CODA)

60%

Best Actor

Will Smith (King Richard)

59%

Best Original Screenplay

Licorice Pizza

54%

Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

50%

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

48%

Best Original Song

“No Time to Die”

47%

Unanimous AI took a group of regular movie fans and created a ‘hive mind’ in which their combined choices are smarter than those of any individual member. “We can take a group of people and turn them into a super organism,” founder Louis Rosenberg told IoT World Today’s sister publication AI Business. “They become an artificial expert.”

Each participant is presented with a question and multiple choice answer in a hexagon format. They use a computer mouse or touchpad to move the circle to their choice. As people see others’ choices, they might give up on their pick. Swarm AI’s algorithm gauges this reaction to determine who has more conviction and get to the group mind’s optimal answer.

In the match up, movie fans and AI chose winners in 16 categories. These answers were compared with the predictions of Variety magazine, the storied trade publication for the entertainment industry. Variety predicted winners for all 23 Oscar categories.

So who won the matchup? The Oscar goes to … AI and regular movie fans, but not by much.

Swarm AI got 13 out of 16 categories right, with the incorrect answers being best picture, best original screenplay and best adapted screenplay. That gives it a score of 81% accuracy.

Variety got 18 out of 23 right, with wrong answers in best original song, best international feature, best animated short, best documentary short and best live action short. That is a 78% accuracy score.

But when looking at just the 16 categories for both AI and Variety, they were tied.

Find out more about how Swarm AI’s predictions beat movie critics’ choices in the past>>>

This article first appeared in IoT World Today’s sister publication AI Business

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